International express delivery prices aren’t fixed values; rather, they’re the result of dynamic influences from multiple factors across four key dimensions: cargo attributes, transportation links, market supply and demand, and additional services. Price differences across different shipments, time periods, and channels are essentially a reflection of the combined effects of these factors. Peak season price increases are the inevitable result of a supply-demand imbalance coupled with rising costs, and their underlying logic is deeply tied to the operational characteristics of the air transport industry.
In this article, Weefreight will provide a detailed explanation of both the factors influencing prices and the logic behind peak season price increases.
- Core Factors Affecting International Express Prices
The pricing logic for international express delivery can be summarized as “base cost + variable cost + service premium.” The specific influencing factors can be broken down into seven categories, each of which directly or indirectly determines the final quote:
- Cargo Core Attributes: Determines “Transportation Difficulty and Resource Utilization”
The characteristics of the cargo itself are the starting point for pricing calculation, directly affecting resource consumption and risk costs during transportation:
Weight and Volume: These are the core pricing factors. International express delivery base rates are calculated based on “billed weight” (the larger of actual weight and volumetric weight). Volumetric weight is typically calculated as “length × width × height (cm) ÷ 5000 or 6000.” For example, if a 10kg bulky item (such as a down jacket) has a volume of 0.2 cubic meters, its volumetric weight is 33.3kg. Therefore, it will be charged as 33.3kg, resulting in a significantly higher price than a similarly heavy item (such as metal accessories).
Cargo Category: Different categories have different shipping restrictions and risks, resulting in significant price differences.
General cargo (e.g., clothing and household goods): No special restrictions, lowest base freight rates.
Sensitive cargo (e.g., electronic products and cosmetics): Requires special shipping channels and an additional “sensitive goods handling fee,” with prices 20%-50% higher than general cargo.
Dangerous goods (e.g., large equipment containing lithium batteries): Requires compliant packaging and a dangerous goods declaration, resulting in prices 2-3 times higher than general cargo, and requires separate approval.
Cargo Value: High-value cargo (e.g., luxury goods and precision instruments) requiring insurance will incur an additional 0.3%-0.8% of the declared value. Furthermore, some shipping channels charge a “high value surcharge” to mitigate excessive transportation risks.
- Shipping Distance and Destination: Determining “Base Mileage Cost”
Distance is a core cost factor for international shipping, but the destination’s logistical convenience also adds additional costs:
Shipping Distance: The straight-line distance from the origin to the destination directly affects air transportation costs (fuel consumption and flight time). The longer the distance, the higher the base freight rate. For example, shipping from China to the US is typically over 50% higher than shipping to Japan.
Destination Types:
Core Cities (such as New York, London, and Tokyo): Well-developed logistics infrastructure, frequent flights, and low final delivery costs, with no additional fees;
Remote Areas (such as rural areas in Europe and the US, and small islands in Southeast Asia): Transit or special delivery is required, and a “remote area surcharge” may apply (usually $20-50 per shipment, or an additional $3-5 per kg based on weight);
Countries with limited logistics (such as some African and South American countries): Complex customs clearance, limited flights, and high channel premiums can result in prices 30%-100% higher than those in core countries.
- Shipping Time and Channel: Determining “Service Premium and Resource Priority”
Different shipping channels correspond to different transportation resources (e.g., flight class, number of transfers). The faster the time, the higher the resource priority and the higher the price:
Commercial Express Priority Channels (e.g., DHL Express Worldwide, FedEx IP): Utilize priority space on all-cargo flights, primarily direct flights, minimal transfers, 3-7 day delivery times, and the highest prices.
Commercial Express Economy Channels (e.g., DHL Economy Select, FedEx IE): Utilize belly hold on passenger flights or standard class space on all-cargo aircraft, may require transfers, and are 1-3 days slower than priority channels, with prices 15%-30% lower.
Cross-border Dedicated Line Channels (e.g., Yuntu Logistics, 4PX Express): Utilize integrated resources for bulk shipments, with delivery times of 7-15 days and prices 30%-50% lower than commercial express.
Postal Channels (e.g., EMS, Postal Parcel): Utilize the Universal Postal Union network, have lower flight priority, and are more efficient. 15-30 days, lowest price.
- Fuel Prices: Directly Related to “Core Air Transport Costs”
International express delivery relies on air capacity, and fuel costs account for 20%-30% of airline operating costs. Fuel price fluctuations are directly reflected in express delivery prices, reflected in “fuel surcharges”:
Fuel surcharges are typically charged as a percentage of the base freight rate and are adjusted monthly or quarterly with fluctuations in international oil prices. For example, when international oil prices rise, DHL may increase its fuel surcharge from 15% to 25%, meaning a base freight of 1,000 yuan will incur an additional 250 yuan in fuel costs.
The higher the oil price, the greater the percentage of the fuel surcharge, and the more significant the increase in express delivery prices. This is the core reason why express delivery prices rise and fall in tandem with global oil price fluctuations.
- Additional Services: On-Demand “Value-Added Costs”
Beyond basic transportation, additional service requirements incur corresponding fees. Common additional services and charging mechanisms include:
Door-to-Door Collection Fee: Some channels charge this fee for small shipments or delivery to non-core areas (10-50 RMB/shipping);
Customs Clearance Fee: A fee charged by a third-party customs broker for handling special shipments (50-200 RMB/shipping);
Storage Fee: A daily fee (10-50 RMB/day/shipping) is charged for shipments held at the airport or warehouse beyond the free delivery period (usually 1-3 days);
Re-dispatch Fee: A fee of 20-100 RMB/shipping is charged for address changes before shipment, with higher fees for remote areas.
- Market Competition and Cooperation Models: Impact on Price Negotiation
Express delivery prices are not fixed. The market competition landscape and the depth of cooperation create room for negotiation:
Market Competition: If multiple express delivery companies compete on the same route (e.g., DHL, FedEx, and SF Express on the China-US route), pricing will be more transparent and discounts will be greater. If a route is monopolized by a few companies (e.g., some African routes), prices will be higher and room for negotiation will be less.
Cooperation Model: Large, long-term customers (e.g., major cross-border e-commerce sellers) can sign framework agreements with express delivery companies and enjoy tiered discounts (monthly shipments of over 1,000 kg may receive 20-30% discounts). Individuals or small-volume shippers, on the other hand, typically pay the standard price, with virtually no discounts.
- Policy and Compliance Costs: Hidden “Risk Premiums”
Changes in import and export policies and tax rules across countries increase shipping compliance costs, which are ultimately reflected in express delivery prices:
For example, after the EU implemented the “IOSS tax reform,” express delivery companies were required to assist sellers in completing tax declarations, increasing operational costs and leading some channels to increase “EU dedicated line prices” as a result.
Some countries have strengthened customs inspections (such as the US’s certification and verification of live electrical products). To reduce the risk of seizures, express delivery companies need to devote more manpower to document review and may charge additional “compliance processing fees.”
II. The Underlying Logic of Peak Season Price Increases: Dual Drivers of Supply and Demand Imbalance and Cost Rigidity
The “peak season” for international express delivery typically coincides with major cross-border e-commerce promotions (Black Friday, Singles’ Day, and Christmas), around major holidays (before the Chinese New Year and before Christmas in Europe and the US), and during the industry’s peak production season. During this period, prices generally rise by 30%-100%, and even the situation of “paying for something but not having a space” may occur. The underlying logic can be broken down into three core aspects:
- Core Logic: A Severe Imbalance Between Supply and Demand for Space, with a “Seller’s Market” Dominating Pricing
Airline space is the “core means of production” for international express delivery, but the elasticity of space supply is far lower than the elasticity of demand. This is the fundamental reason for peak season price increases:
Supply Side: Limited Capacity Growth and Strong Rigid Constraints
The expansion of air transport capacity (especially all-cargo flight capacity) relies on aircraft procurement and route approvals, a cycle that can last 1-3 years, making rapid expansion impossible in the short term. During peak season, all-cargo flight capacity is already locked up by large freight forwarders and cross-border e-commerce companies, leaving very little unused space. Furthermore, the belly hold of passenger flights (which accounts for approximately 40% of air cargo capacity) prioritizes passenger baggage during peak season, further compressing the space available for cargo, resulting in a “basically fixed” overall space supply.
Demand: Explosive Growth in Cargo Volume
During peak season, cross-border e-commerce sellers replenish inventory in bulk to capture market share. Demand for personal shipments (such as those for overseas purchases and holiday gifts) also surges, with cargo volumes typically reaching two to three times that of the off-season. With so much cargo competing for limited shipping space, express delivery companies or freight forwarders inevitably raise prices to select high-value cargo (such as urgent orders and high-ticket items), creating a “highest bidder wins” market. For example, around Black Friday, commercial express delivery prices on the China-US route soared from 25 yuan/kg to 50 yuan/kg, a direct reflection of the imbalance between shipping space supply and demand.
- Costs: Rising operational and resource costs further drive up prices
During peak season, all costs along the entire transportation chain rise simultaneously, forcing express delivery companies to raise their quotes to maintain profits. This is the “cost driver” of price increases:
Ground handling costs surge
Cargo piles up in airport warehouses and sorting centers, requiring temporary manpower (overtime pay, temporary worker wages) and equipment (forklifts, shelf rentals) to handle the goods. Operating costs are 30%-50% higher than during the off-season. Furthermore, reduced efficiency in cargo loading, unloading, and transit leads to increased hidden costs such as storage fees and overtime pay.
Rising fuel and logistics resource costs
Peak season also marks peak demand for global aviation fuel. Oil prices typically rise with demand, directly driving up fuel surcharges. Furthermore, delivery capacity at the end of the delivery process (such as local couriers and vehicles) is also strained, forcing express delivery companies to pay additional fees to ensure delivery. These costs are ultimately passed on to the final price.
- Risk Premium: Increased risk of delivery delays requires coverage for potential losses
During peak season, the risk of shipment delays and loss increases significantly. To cover potential claims costs, express delivery companies incorporate a “risk premium” into their prices:
Limited shipping space may lead to “queuing” (waiting time of up to 3-7 days). If express delivery companies have promised delivery times, they will be required to pay liquidated damages in the event of delays;
The operational pressure during cargo transit and sorting is high, increasing the probability of lost or damaged goods and leading to higher claims costs.
Therefore, peak season price increases are not only a way to “earn more profits” but also a self-protection mechanism for express delivery companies to cope with high risks.
III. Summary: The Nature of Price Fluctuations and Peak Season Coping Suggestions
International express delivery price fluctuations are essentially a comprehensive reflection of “resource costs + market supply and demand + service value.” Peak season price increases are the inevitable result of “primarily supply and demand imbalances, supplemented by rising costs.” The core issue is that the rigid constraints of air transport capacity cannot keep up with the explosive growth of freight demand.
For sellers or individual shippers, the key to coping with peak season price increases is advance planning:
Off-peak shipments: Ship goods to overseas warehouses or restock via sea/air freight in advance 1-2 months before peak season to avoid relying on high-priced express delivery services during peak season;
Secure long-term resources: Sign long-term agreements with express delivery companies or first-tier freight forwarders to secure space and preferential rates in advance, minimizing the impact of peak season price increases;
Optimize cargo attributes: Reduce cargo volume (e.g., compress and pack bulky goods), declare reasonable values, and reduce chargeable weight and surcharges.
By understanding this logic, you can more clearly judge the rationality of express delivery prices and reduce costs through advance planning.
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