In international air transport, airline capacity (i.e., the total capacity to transport cargo, typically measured in available cargo hold volume or available deadweight tonnage) is not a fixed value but is dynamically influenced by multiple factors, directly impacting the timeliness and cost of cargo transportation.
In this article, Weefreight systematically breaks down the factors influencing capacity and provides key strategies for booking cargo during peak season.
- Core Factors Affecting Airline Capacity
Airline capacity is essentially the result of resource allocation on the “supply side” and is constrained by four dimensions: hardware resources, market demand, external environment, and policy regulations. Specifically, they are as follows:
- Hardware Resources: The Basic Carrier of Capacity
Hardware is the “physical limit” of capacity and directly determines how much cargo space an airline can provide. Key influencing factors include:
Aircraft Number and Aircraft Model Structure
This is the most core hardware constraint:
Freighter aircraft (such as the Boeing 747F and Airbus A330F) are the mainstay of cargo transportation. A single freighter can have a cargo hold volume of 500-1000 cubic meters and a payload capacity of 30-130 tons. The greater the number of freighters, the stronger the capacity base.
The belly hold (the cargo compartment beneath the fuselage of a passenger aircraft) provides supplementary capacity, accounting for approximately 60% of global air transport capacity (industry data for 2024). However, belly hold space is limited (for example, the belly hold of a Boeing 787 can only accommodate 100,000 tons). 20-30 cubic meters of cargo), with passenger baggage prioritized. Actual available cargo space fluctuates with passenger volume (for example, during peak holiday periods, the belly compartment is occupied by baggage, significantly reducing cargo space).
If airlines primarily rely on “passenger-to-freighter” aircraft (e.g., passenger aircraft with seats removed to convert them into temporary freighters), capacity stability will be even worse (passenger-to-freighter aircraft must be regularly restored to passenger use, and have a lower payload/capacity than dedicated freighters).
Fleet Scheduling and Route Network
Even with sufficient aircraft, capacity is affected by “route allocation”:
Airlines prioritize high-quality capacity (all-cargo aircraft, large aircraft) for high-profit routes (such as China-US, China-Europe, and China-Japan routes). Niche routes (such as second-tier cities in Southeast Asia and some African ports) often rely on belly-hold cargo, resulting in sparse and unstable capacity.
Aircraft maintenance and crew scheduling also consume capacity. If an aircraft undergoes scheduled maintenance (such as C-check or D-check) or flight reductions due to crew shortages, capacity on the corresponding route will be directly reduced.
Ground Support Capacity
Releasing capacity requires ground support. If airport cargo terminals lack loading and unloading equipment (such as forklifts and conveyor belts), storage space is limited, or customs inspections are inefficient, even if an aircraft has available cargo space, cargo cannot be loaded in a timely manner, resulting in “idle capacity” (e.g., aircraft takeoff delays due to waiting for loading, resulting in subsequent flight delays and a decrease in overall capacity utilization).
- Market Demand: A Signal for Capacity Adjustment
Market demand is the guiding principle for airlines to adjust capacity, and fluctuations in demand directly trigger “supply adaptation” of capacity:
Seasonal Demand Fluctuations
This is the most common factor influencing demand:
During traditional peak seasons (e.g., 3-4 months before Christmas in Europe and the United States, and 1 month before Chinese New Year), cross-border e-commerce and manufacturing shipments are concentrated, leading to a surge in demand. Airlines will temporarily increase freighter flights and increase the frequency of routes (e.g., adding 5-10 freighter flights per week to the China-US route during peak season);
During off-seasons (e.g., 1 month after Chinese New Year, and the summer holidays in Europe and the United States), demand plummets. Airlines will cut flights, suspend some niche routes, or even redirect freighters to other routes with high demand (e.g., shifting freighters from Europe’s off-season to Southeast Asia).
Differences in Industry and Regional Demand
Changes in demand across industries and regions can have a directional impact on capacity allocation:
Sudden industry demand (e.g., the transportation of masks and vaccines during the pandemic, or a surge in battery exports for the new energy industry) can lead to capacity shortages on specific routes (e.g., China to Europe, China to Southeast Asia), prompting airlines to temporarily increase capacity.
Regional economic fluctuations (e.g., a country’s currency devaluation leading to reduced import demand, or the relocation of manufacturing to a region) can reduce demand on corresponding routes, leading airlines to reduce capacity accordingly. (For example, the economic downturn in some Latin American countries in 2023 led to a 15% year-on-year decrease in capacity on the China to Latin America route.) 3. External Environment: Uncertain Variables in Capacity
The external environment is an “uncontrollable factor” that often leads to sudden capacity reductions or interruptions. Core factors include:
Geopolitics and Trade Policy
International policy changes directly impact route capacity:
Route restrictions (e.g., a country imposing flight suspensions or flight bans on other countries’ airlines. For example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, several European countries banned Russian airlines from flying over their airspace, forcing some China-Europe routes to reroute, reducing capacity and increasing costs);
Trade barriers (e.g., a country imposing tariffs or restricting the import of specific goods, resulting in a decrease in demand for the corresponding goods and airlines reducing capacity on the relevant routes).
Natural Disasters and Emergencies
Extreme events can directly interrupt or disrupt air transport capacity:
Natural disasters (e.g., typhoons and earthquakes leading to airport closures, volcanic eruptions leading to flight bans—in 2010, volcanic ash from Iceland caused a one-week suspension of flights at European airports, disrupting 30% of global air transport capacity);
Public health events (e.g., the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, which grounded numerous passenger aircraft worldwide, causing bellyhold capacity to plummet by 80%, and forcing freighter capacity to temporarily outstrip supply);
Aviation safety events (e.g., aircraft accidents and air traffic control system failures, leading to the temporary closure of airports or routes and a temporary reduction in air transport capacity).
Fuel Prices and Cost Pressures
Fuel costs account for 20%-30% of airline operating expenses. Fuel price fluctuations can affect capacity supply:
When fuel prices spike (such as the surge in oil prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022), airlines may reduce fuel consumption by reducing flights or downsizing aircraft (replacing large ones with smaller ones), indirectly reducing capacity.
If operating costs (such as crew salaries and airport landing fees) continue to rise, some low-profit routes may be suspended, resulting in reduced regional capacity.
- Policies and Regulations: The Capacity Constraint Framework
Regulations imposed by governments and international organizations restrict capacity at both the “access” and “operational” levels:
Airline Rights and Schedule Control
International capacity is governed by air rights agreements (for example, the air rights agreement between China and the United States stipulates a maximum number of flights per airline on both sides). If a country does not grant more air rights, airlines cannot arbitrarily increase flights. Furthermore, airport slots (for example, Shanghai Pudong Airport has limited slots during peak hours) are a scarce resource. Even if an airline has aircraft, it may be unable to increase capacity due to a lack of slots.
Aviation Safety and Environmental Protection Regulations
Safety and environmental protection policies indirectly impact capacity:
Safety regulations (such as ICAO’s restrictions on aircraft aging, which require the retirement of older aircraft. If airlines fail to promptly replace them with new aircraft, capacity will decrease);
Environmental protection regulations (such as the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), which requires airlines to pay for carbon emissions. Some airlines may reduce carbon emissions costs by reducing flights and using smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft, leading to capacity adjustments). II. How to book space during peak seasons (such as Christmas and pre-Spring Festival)?
The core problem during peak season for air freight is that demand far outstrips supply (capacity gaps on some popular routes can reach 30%-50% during peak season). Booking space should be based on the three principles of “early lock-in, resource matching, and flexible adaptation.” Specific strategies are as follows:
- Advance Planning: Seize the “Capacity Reservation Period”
Peak season space allocation has a distinct “time window,” so advance planning is key:
Confirm your booking needs 4-8 weeks in advance.
Airlines typically open “capacity pre-sales” one to two months before peak season (for example, pre-sales for the Christmas season in Europe and the United States begin in July and August each year). At this time, you can submit a “capacity reservation application” to the airline or Tier 1 agent. The more detailed the application, the easier it is to secure space (airlines prioritize orders with stable volume and clear information).
Note: Avoid last-minute bookings (e.g., applying just one week before departure). By then, the space is essentially already taken, leaving you with only temporary, high-price, and unstable bookings.
Securing a “Long-Term Partnership Agreement”
If your company has a stable monthly/quarterly cargo volume (e.g., over 100 tons per month), you can sign a long-term contract for cargo (CCA) or a pallet agreement (reserving a single pallet, approximately 10-20 cubic meters, for a specific flight) with an airline before peak season.
The agreement stipulates a fixed number of spaces and a price (usually 10%-20% lower than peak season bulk rates). Even during peak season, airlines must prioritize securing these spaces.
Preferably, partner with airlines that primarily operate all-cargo aircraft (e.g., FedEx, UPS, SF Airlines), or those with a strong presence on target routes (e.g., Lufthansa for China-Europe routes, Air France for China-France routes).
- Select a High-Quality Agent: Leverage “Resource Integration Capabilities”
Most small and medium-sized enterprises cannot sign agreements directly with airlines and must book space through a “first-tier freight forwarder.” Key criteria for selecting an agent are resource scarcity and service stability:
Prioritize “core airline agents.”
Among first-tier agents, “core agents” (e.g., the top three agents for a particular airline’s route) receive more space allocations. These agents have long-term relationships with airlines, receive fixed monthly space quotas, and receive priority allocation during peak seasons.
How to Identify: Check whether the agent has a “Freight Sales Agent Qualification Certificate” issued by the airline or can provide a “direct space confirmation” (not a “transfer order”).
Avoid “Multi-Level Sub-contracting”
During peak season, some small agents lack direct space and must “sub-purchase” space from first-tier agents (also known as “second-hand space”). This model is not only expensive (each sub-contracting layer adds a 5%-10% surcharge), but also lacks stability (first-tier agents may cancel sub-contracted space if they prioritize direct customers).
It is recommended to select an agent through on-site inspections or peer recommendations to confirm whether they have direct access to the airline’s booking system (such as Lufthansa’s Cargo IT system and Air China’s CA Cargo system).
- Optimize Cargo and Booking Strategies: Improve “Capacity Competitiveness”
During peak season, airlines prioritize cargo with high profits and convenient operations. Companies can improve their chances of securing space by optimizing cargo attributes and booking details:
Clarify cargo “priority” to avoid ambiguous declarations.
Airlines prioritize cargo as follows: high-value-added cargo (e.g., electronics, luxury goods) > general cargo > bulk cargo (bulky, lightweight cargo, e.g., home textiles, toys) > special cargo (e.g., dangerous goods, perishables).
When booking, clearly indicate the cargo type (e.g., “general cargo, no batteries, 30kg per piece”) to avoid delays due to ambiguous declarations (e.g., “daily necessities”). If your cargo is bulk cargo, discuss “buffering” with the agent in advance (sharing the bulk cargo’s volume costs). Some agents may assist in securing space.
Flexible Adjustment of Shipping Times and Routes
During peak season, space is most limited on popular times (e.g., flights on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays) and direct routes (e.g., direct flights from Shanghai to New York). Consider making appropriate compromises:
Flexible Time: Choose less popular times (e.g., flights on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays) or early/late flights, where competition for space is less.
Flexible Routes: Accept transfer routes (e.g., Shanghai to Frankfurt to New York, via a European hub). Transfer routes typically have more capacity than direct routes, and some transfer flights (e.g., Lufthansa’s Frankfurt transfer and Emirates’ Dubai transfer) are only 1-2 days slower than direct flights, offering better value for money.
Prepare “Complete Documents” in Advance to Avoid Review Delays
During peak season, airlines and agents often have lower review efficiency. Incomplete documents (such as missing commercial invoices, packing lists, or incomplete declaration elements) can result in booking rejections and missed shipping space.
It is recommended to prepare a “full set” of customs clearance documents (including Chinese and English packing lists, invoices, trade contracts, and certificates of origin, if applicable) in advance and submit them simultaneously with booking to ensure a “first-pass” review.
- Establish a Contingency Plan: Dealing with Sudden Cancellations
During peak season, even confirmed seats may be canceled due to airline flight reductions or aircraft substitutions (e.g., replacing a larger aircraft with a smaller one, resulting in less cargo space). Therefore, plan contingency measures in advance:
Reserve “Backup Flights and Agents”
When booking, submit a “Backup Booking Request” to two or three different agents (or airlines) simultaneously, stipulating that if the primary seat is canceled, the backup seat will be used first.
For example: Book a “Shanghai to Los Angeles, United Airlines all-cargo flight (3 flights per week)” as a backup, and a “Shanghai to San Francisco, Delta Airlines bellyhold flight (5 flights per week)” as a backup to ensure an alternative.
Negotiate a “Time Buffer” with the Consignee in Advance
During peak season, shipping times may be 3-5 days slower than usual (e.g., a normal 3-day arrival time may take 6-8 days during peak season). It’s important to communicate with the overseas consignee in advance and extend the “Estimated Time of Arrival” to avoid rejections due to delays. Furthermore, if the cargo is “holiday stock” (such as Christmas gifts), advance the “booking time” by 1-2 weeks to allow for inspection and transit buffers.
Summary
Airline capacity is the result of a combination of “hardware + demand + environment + policy.” The core logic of peak season booking is to “lock in resources in advance, leverage professional partners, and optimize your own strategy.” Secure space through long-term agreements or pre-sales, choose agents with direct access, flexibly adjust cargo and routes, and be prepared for emergencies. Only then can you efficiently secure stable space during peak season and avoid cargo being stranded at the port or facing exorbitant freight costs.
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