According to a Statista report, if Trump’s high tariff policy continues until 2025 and beyond, the US e-commerce market could shrink by $320 billion by 2029, dropping from $1.84 trillion in the pre-tariff scenario to $1.52 trillion, a decrease of approximately 17%.
This policy could push the overall average tax rate to its highest level since 1969, causing a surge in the cost of goods in Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Fashion, home furnishings, and disposable goods would be hit the hardest, with the former facing an average tax rate of 12.55%.
The Hainan Free Trade Port, however, has gradually developed against the backdrop of the Sino-US tariff dispute. Its policy combination of “zero tariffs + value-added processing + offshore trade” offers unique advantages in circumventing trade barriers.
For example, Hainan’s free trade port will implement “zero tariffs” after its closure. This will allow businesses to ship goods imported from the US to Hainan first, avoiding the high additional tariffs and reducing import costs. Furthermore, if the goods are processed in Hainan and their value-added exceeds 30%, they can be sold tariff-free to mainland China or overseas.
This means that Hainan’s development can, to a certain extent, mitigate the impact of high US tariffs on related trade. However, it may also cause US e-commerce to experience a reduction in market size due to the impact of high tariffs.
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