Due to its unique geographical location, the Middle East serves as an aviation hub connecting Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania, occupying a critical position in international air transport. However, the current complex and volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East presents numerous risks for international air transport transshipment, requiring companies and relevant practitioners to remain vigilant.
In this article, Weefreight provides a detailed analysis, which we hope will be helpful.
Airspace Closure and Flight Diversion Risks:
Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East often lead to the closure of airspace by certain countries. For example, on June 23, 2025, Iran launched missiles at the US military base in Doha. Qatar announced a temporary closure of its airspace, resulting in various changes and adjustments to flights at airports such as Doha and Dubai. Although Qatari airspace reopened several hours later, flight operations were still significantly impacted, and significant delays are expected. Furthermore, when the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, countries like Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Syria also closed their airspace, forcing flights from airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways to reroute via Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Turkmenistan. This significantly increased flight transit times and could even delay cargo arrival at destinations.
Risk of Reduced Capacity and Rising Transportation Costs:
Geopolitical conflict can reduce air transport capacity in the Middle East. For example, after the US airstrikes on Iran in 2025, according to Rotate, an aviation capacity data company, air cargo capacity to Iran and Syria decreased by as much as 100% by the 24th week, while capacity to Iraq decreased by 84% and to Israel by 78%. Airlines reroute routes to avoid conflict zones, increasing flight times and fuel costs. For example, on the Dubai-Frankfurt route, the rerouting increased flight time by an average of 2-3 hours and fuel costs by 20%-30%. Furthermore, some insurance companies impose a “war risk surcharge” on cargo flights through the Middle East, further increasing transportation costs.
Flight Delays and Cargo Damage Risk:
Middle Eastern airports, such as Doha, often maintain minute-by-minute flight transfer processes. However, the instability caused by geopolitical conflicts can disrupt this efficient operation. Airlines adjusting routes to avoid conflict zones, even if it only adds 20 to 30 minutes to average flight times, can cause flight delays, extend cargo waiting times during transfer, and increase the risk of damage.
Risk of Increased Transit Process Complexity:
Geopolitical conflicts can lead to changes in customs policies and security measures across the Middle East. For example, during periods of conflict, countries may intensify cargo inspections, extending customs clearance times and making the process more complex. Businesses may need to provide additional documentation and supporting documents to ensure smooth transit, or face potential detention and fines.
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