The price difference between peak and off-peak seasons for international express shipping is significant. Overall, prices during the peak season (Q4, around Black Friday and Christmas) are generally 30%-50% higher than during the off-peak season, and in extreme cases on core routes, prices can double, along with high surcharges.
Below, Weefreight will provide a detailed analysis to help you understand this better.
I. Off-peak and Peak Season Classification and Typical Fluctuation Ranges
Off-peak season (February-March, early July-August): Supply and demand are balanced, basic freight rates decrease, and surcharges are canceled or reduced. Freight rates for China-US/China-Europe routes are mostly 30-40 RMB/kg, and Southeast Asia dedicated lines are as low as 15-18 RMB/kg.
Peak season (October-December): Demand surges, capacity is tight, basic freight rates increase by 30%-50%, coupled with peak season surcharges (3-8 RMB/kg), residential delivery fees, etc. The peak price for China-US routes can reach 70 RMB/kg, and China-Europe 45-60 RMB/kg.
II. Differences in Different Transportation Methods and Routes
Commercial Express (DHL/UPS/FedEx): The difference between peak and off-peak seasons is 30%-80% (including surcharges), significantly affected by capacity limitations and the叠加 of surcharges. For example, during the peak season, UPS charges a peak season service fee of 7.1 RMB/kg + fuel surcharge for shipments from mainland China to the Americas, while FedEx charges a demand surcharge and adjusts overall rates during the same period.
Air Freight Dedicated Lines: The difference is 25%-50%. During the peak season, passenger aircraft cargo space is reduced, and cargo volume surges, driving up prices. During the off-peak season, due to idle capacity, there is a significant price reduction.
Sea Freight: The difference is 15%-30%. Affected by port congestion and peak season surcharges, the fluctuation range is relatively moderate, making it suitable for non-urgent goods to be shipped during off-peak periods.China-US Main Route: Price difference of 50%-100% (extreme), driven by Black Friday stocking and concentrated e-commerce shipments, leading to a surge in demand and prices peaking in mid-November.
China-Europe Main Route: Price difference of 30%-60%, significantly affected by Christmas demand and capacity allocation, with peak season surcharges added to increased base freight rates.
Southeast Asia Routes: Price difference of 15%-30%, relatively stable price fluctuations between peak and off-peak seasons due to regional consumption patterns and increased flight frequency.
III. Surcharges and Hidden Costs
Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): 3-8 RMB/kg, varying depending on the courier company and route. For example, DHL charges a 15 RMB/kg fuel surcharge for shipments from China to Europe and 18 RMB/kg to the Americas during peak season.
Residential Delivery Fee: FedEx charges $6.5-$8.75 per package during peak season, while UPS adds a surcharge of up to 60 cents per shipment during peak periods.
Fuel Surcharge: Fluctuates with oil prices and increases during peak season, a significant component of hidden costs.
Practical Suggestions
Book cargo space 2-3 months in advance, sign long-term agreements to obtain preferential prices, and avoid the price peak in mid-November.
Ship during off-peak periods, prioritize off-season or regional dedicated lines, and reduce reliance on air freight, such as using a sea freight + overseas warehouse + local delivery model.
Pay attention to surcharge rules and plan your cargo and transportation solutions in advance to avoid unnecessary value-added service fees.
(Note: All fees and transit times mentioned above are for reference only. Please refer to the actual invoice for details. Thank you!)
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